[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:51:10 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0501UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0929UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Returning active region 484, now numbered region 501,
produced two M1 level flares early in the UT day. The first at
0455UT was impulsive. The second was a long duration event commencing
at 0900. A 180-degree halo fast CME was observed in LASCO imagery
at this time off the east solar limb. The CME does not appear
earth-directed. There is a possibility of further strong to major
flare activity from region 501 during its current rotation. Solar
wind parameters remain elevated under the influence of the present
geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 34 3345 6444
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 32 3334 6544
Learmonth 38 3335 6554
Culgoora 28 2344 6434
Canberra 33 2345 6444
Hobart 34 3345 6444
Casey(Ant) 36 4554 5443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 46 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 65 (Active)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 131 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26 4445 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
15 Nov 25 active
16 Nov 25 active
COMMENT: Unsettled to minor storm geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the UT day in response to elevated solar wind parameters.
A brief period about the mid part of the UT day saw major storm
activity at some locations. The causitive solar feature is a
large coronal hole which is expected to remain geoeffective for
several more days. There was an overall slight decrease in solar
wind velocity over the UT day, but an increase in IMF magnitude
and polarity fluctuations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain elevated for at least the next two days, with a possible
decline in activity on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
15 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
16 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Extended period of degraded HF communications quality
for mid to high latitudes expected due to coronal hole wind stream.
At low latitudes there may be minor degradation about local dawn,
otherwise conditions near normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 20 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 30 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 35 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs again observed around local dawn this
morning for Aus/NZ region. Depression associated with geomagnetic
activity induced by coronal hole high speed wind stream. Intense
daytime sporadic-E observed at low to mid latitudes. Persistent
and occasionally intense spread-F conditions observed at mid
to high latitudes. Increased absorption observed at times Southern
Ocean region. Extended interval of lower than normal MUFs for
southern Aus/NZ region probable over next few days. Depressed
MUF conditions may ease slightly after 15 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 699 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 224000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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