[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2334 3423
      Darwin              17   2334 3433
      Townsville          17   1325 3423
      Learmonth           16   2334 3423
      Canberra            18   2335 2422
      Hobart              18   2335 2422
      Casey(Ant)          15   3333 2433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25   5543 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds remain slightly elevated due to a 
coronal hole solar wind stream. Isolated active periods are possible 
at times for 24 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in slight depressions at times during 24 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    75    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
25 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
26 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in slight depressions at times during 24 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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