[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 13 09:09:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 650km/sec over UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated around neutral over the UT day. Emission at north
20 on the east limb can still be seen, but nothing has yet rotated
onto the solar disk. This could be return of previously flare-active
solar region 338. Solar activity may increase in coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4333
Darwin 15 3333 3333
Townsville 15 3333 3332
Learmonth 17 3343 4233
Canberra 16 3333 4333
Hobart 15 3333 4323
Casey(Ant) 22 4543 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAY :
Townsville 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 118 (Major storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 31 5365 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 20 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods
possible.
14 May 20 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods
possible.
15 May 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 12 May and
is current for interval 13-15 May. Predominately active conditions
observed past 24 hours and expected next three days. Recurrence
suggests that unsettled to active conditions may extend until
22 May, due to frequency of croronal holes on the solar disk,
and that minor storm periods are more likely on 13 and 14 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next three days at mid
to high latitudes. Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 50 depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus region)
13 May 70 near normal (northern Aus region)
14 May 50 depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus region)
14 May 70 near normal (northern Aus region)
15 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 11 May
and is current for interval 12-14 May. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn this morning. Northern Aus
region MUFs again appear unaffected. Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs
may be lower than normal over next two days, due to geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole high speed wind stream. Also, increasing
chance of shortwave fadeouts in coming days due to possible return
of a previously flare-active solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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