[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Region 314 has now rotated off the visible disk. There 
are no other regions of significant magnetic complexity on the 
visible disk and solar activity is expected to be low for the 
next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   3445 4223
      Darwin              17   3434 4224
      Townsville          22   3445 4223
      Learmonth           25   3345 5233
      Canberra            23   3445 4233
      Hobart              17   3344 4123
      Casey(Ant)          25   3554 4223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             21   1335 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar    18    active 
23 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated at 650-700 km/s. The 
interplanetary magnetic field has maintained an average slightly 
southward bias over the UT day. As a result, unsettled to active 
conditions were observed at all latitudes and minor storm conditions 
were observed briefly at high latitudes during the early part 
of the UT day. Geomagnetic disturbance effects may persist today 
as solar wind parameters remain elevated. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Poor-normal    Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Widespread ionospheric depressions observed at all latitudes 
throughout the UT day in response to elevated proton flux and 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. HF conditions are 
expected to improve today, but high latitudes will experience 
extended periods of disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Variable local depressions during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-35% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    75    Equatorial/N. Aus regions near predicted monthly 
                values. S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 10-20% below 
                predicted monthly values. 
23 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern regions can expected continuing variable ionospheric 
depressions today as a result of persisting coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic disturbance. Conditions should gradually improve 
over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 668 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   246000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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