[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 22 10:46:59 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Region 314 has now rotated off the visible disk. There
are no other regions of significant magnetic complexity on the
visible disk and solar activity is expected to be low for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 22 3445 4223
Darwin 17 3434 4224
Townsville 22 3445 4223
Learmonth 25 3345 5233
Canberra 23 3445 4233
Hobart 17 3344 4123
Casey(Ant) 25 3554 4223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 93 (Minor storm)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 1335 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 18 active
23 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated at 650-700 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field has maintained an average slightly
southward bias over the UT day. As a result, unsettled to active
conditions were observed at all latitudes and minor storm conditions
were observed briefly at high latitudes during the early part
of the UT day. Geomagnetic disturbance effects may persist today
as solar wind parameters remain elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Widespread ionospheric depressions observed at all latitudes
throughout the UT day in response to elevated proton flux and
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance. HF conditions are
expected to improve today, but high latitudes will experience
extended periods of disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Variable local depressions during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-35% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 75 Equatorial/N. Aus regions near predicted monthly
values. S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 10-20% below
predicted monthly values.
23 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern regions can expected continuing variable ionospheric
depressions today as a result of persisting coronal hole induced
geomagnetic disturbance. Conditions should gradually improve
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 668 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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