[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due 
to solar coronal holes, and is expected to remain elevated over 
the next few days. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward 5-10nT during the first half 
of the UT day. The Sun has been relatively quiet again over the 
past 24 hours. The recently flare active solar region 386 appaears 
to be declining. Solar region 388 just west of the centre of 
the solar disk is showing growth and flare activity from this 
region is possible if development continues. Solar region 387 
to the north-east of 386 has been relatively stable over past 
24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3343 1434
      Darwin              15   3343 1333
      Townsville          16   3343 1433
      Learmonth           16   3343 1434
      Canberra            16   3343 1433
      Hobart              15   3343 1423
      Casey(Ant)          13   3431 2335
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
23 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
24 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected 
to cause elevated background geomgnetic activity over the coming 
week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Briefly depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      then mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near normal.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected over coming days, restricted 
to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus region MUFs expected 
to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
       X-ray background: B2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 534 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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