[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 10:00:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3 15/2357UT probable all West Pacific
M1.0 0248UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1201UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar region 386 (region 365 last rotation) has produced
M- and X-class flare activity since rotating around the east
limb. Further M- and X-class flare activity is possible over
the next few days from this region. Solar wind speeds have varied
between 450 and 600 km/s over the past 24 hours, most likely
as the result of flare/CME activity associated with solar region
375 and possible coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds should
decline over the next couple of days. The CME observed in association
with the X1.3 flare at 2356UT on 15 June is primarily directed
eastward, and is not expected to be very geoffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 23 4424 3355
Darwin 20 4424 3345
Townsville 23 4434 4345
Learmonth 22 3424 3355
Canberra 26 3425 4354
Hobart 26 3425 4354
Casey(Ant) 16 4433 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUN :
Townsville 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 4533 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 16 Unsettled to active
18 Jun 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
19 Jun 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: Isolated active and minor storm periods continued during
16 June as the result of recent CME and coronal hole activity.
Mostly unsettled to active levels are expected for 17 June with
active and isolated minor storm periods again possible for 18-19
June due to a possible glancing blow from the CME observed in
association with the X1.3 flare on June 15 and a coronal hole
that is expected to be in a geoeffective position by 19 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times for the next
few days as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
SWFs are expected over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 80 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
18 Jun 75 Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times.
19 Jun 75 Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 16 June
and is current for interval 16-18 June (SWFs) . Slight depressions
are expected at times for the next few days as the result of
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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