[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 8 09:48:59 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 06/2338UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: An M1 level flare was produced by region 375 late in
the UT day Jun 06. A weak Type II radio sweep was observed on
Culgoora radiospectrograph in association with this flare. LASCO
C3 imagery showed a minor mass ejection, directed mainly northward.
There is a possibility of a weak shock arrival in the first half
of the UT day on Jun 10. Region 375 has shown some growth in
area and complexity over the past 24 hours and could produce
further C- to M-class flares. Due to the current location on
the solar disk, earth-directed CME's from this region are likely.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3323
Darwin 15 3333 3333
Townsville 13 3333 3323
Learmonth 13 3333 3324
Canberra 13 3333 3323
Hobart 17 3334 4323
Casey(Ant) 19 4433 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUN :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 138 (Severe storm)
Hobart 132 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
09 Jun 25 active
10 Jun 25 active
COMMENT: Observed conditions in the Australasian region were
quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods at high latitudes
only. Solar wind speed further increased during the latter part
of the UT day and is quite elevated at around 800 km/s at the
time of report issue. Interplanetary magnetic field Bz has shown
only moderate polarity fluctuations, with a moderate southward
bias. The elevated solar wind speed is expected to produce minor
storm periods during the next 24 hours, with unsettled to active
conditions persisting for the next few days. A minor storm period
is in progess at high latitudes at the time of report issue.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Fair Fair-poor
09 Jun Normal Fair Fair-poor
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed equatorial and N
Aus region. HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high
latitudes over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night/after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 55 Near predicted values/enhanced equatorial/PNG
region. Near predicted monthly values with mild
overnight or post-dawn depressions Aus/NZ regions.
Generally poor conditions in Antarctic regions.
09 Jun 65 Near predicted values/enhanced equatorial/PNG
region. Near predicted monthly values with mild
overnight or post-dawn depressions Aus/NZ regions.
Generally poor conditions in Antarctic regions.
10 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight/post-dawn depressions observed equatorial
and N Aus regions. Extensive sporadic-E and spread-F conditions
observed S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Degraded HF conditions expected
next few days due to further coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 625 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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