[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 2 09:11:21 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0314UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0712UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1250UT possible lower European
M1.6 1652UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2105UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Five low level M class flares were observed over past
24 hours. Solar region 365 (S07W84) produced possibly 2 of these
events (one event was not optically correlated). Region 365 is
about to deprart the solar disk. A new solar region (numbered 375), on
the north-eastern solar limb (N09E80) contributed the other three
M1 class events. This region has yet to rotate fully into view.
A declining trend in solar flux and flare activity was initially
expected with the departure of 365. However, flare activity levels
may be sustained at the moderate level (with chance for high),
dependant on the evolution of new region 375. This region currently
appears bright, with nice loops visible in SOHO EIT imagery.
Solar wind speed fluctuated over past 24 hours and may be showing
a slight upward trend towards the end of the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
southward 5nT over past 24 hours. Solar wind density showed an
increasing trend over past 24hours. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase further over next 24 hours as the Earth further enters
the high speed wind stream from a large solar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 2332 3233
Darwin 11 2332 3233
Townsville 11 1332 3233
Learmonth 12 2332 3333
Canberra 12 2332 3333
Hobart 11 2332 3233
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 17 5531 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 20 active
03 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
04 Jun 25 active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 31 May and
is current for interval 2-4 June. An increasing trend of activity
is expected over next few days as the Earth enters a high speed
wind stream from a solar coronal hole. Also, activity may be
stronger on 03 Jun, due to the combined effects of coronal hole
wind stream and anticipated glancing blow from M9/CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0505UT 31/05, Ended at 1505UT 31/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be initinially normal today
then becoming degraded at mid to high latitudes due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects and possible glancing blow
from a recent mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Initially depressed 15-20% then recovering as day
progressed,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F and some absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20%
04 Jun 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric MUF support level and comms conditions expected
to be initially normal today. However, a trend of deteriorating
conditions is expected late 02 Jun/03 Jun for mid to high latitudes
(southern Aus/NZ region). Northern Aus region MUFs expected to
remain mostly near monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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