[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 25 09:47:53 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2213
      Darwin               5   2111 2223
      Townsville           5   2111 2223
      Learmonth            3   2100 2213
      Canberra             0   0--- ----
      Hobart               1   1100 1003
      Casey(Ant)           5   2211 122-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2223 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 
today. Solar wind speed has decayed to less than 350 km/s and 
interplanetary magnetic field Bz is showing mild fluctuations 
about netral polarity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Brief periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes. HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Brief depressions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    85    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul    85    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul    85    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
MUFs are expected to remain mostly near normal in the Australian/NZ 
regions during the next three days. Expect periods of spread-F 
at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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