[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 25 09:47:53 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 2111 2213
Darwin 5 2111 2223
Townsville 5 2111 2223
Learmonth 3 2100 2213
Canberra 0 0--- ----
Hobart 1 1100 1003
Casey(Ant) 5 2211 122-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2223 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected
today. Solar wind speed has decayed to less than 350 km/s and
interplanetary magnetic field Bz is showing mild fluctuations
about netral polarity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
Brief periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Brief depressions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 85 near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 85 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 85 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
MUFs are expected to remain mostly near normal in the Australian/NZ
regions during the next three days. Expect periods of spread-F
at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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