[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 20 11:20:16 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few C-class flares
were recorded from regions 412(N16W20) and 410(S12W13)- the
largest being a C3.4 flare at 0931UT from region 410. Culgoora
and Learmonth also recorded a Type II radio burst associated
with a C1.8 flare observed at 0136UT. These events could not
be corelated to a CME. Due to the east-west spread of the
current coronal hole, the solar wind stream is still going
strong. The solar wind speed remained steady at about 500 km/s
during the first few hours of the UT day and again increased to
approximately 650 km/s by the end of the day. The N/S component
of the inter-planetary magnetic field remained mostly positive,
but it showed minor to mild N/S fluctuations especially in the
second half of the day. The solar activity is expected to
remain at low to moderate levels during the next 3 days. Regions
410 and 412 have shown growth during the last 24 hours and they
seem to be M-flare capable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 3323 4334
Darwin 13 3323 3334
Townsville 15 3324 3333
Learmonth 14 3223 4334
Canberra 15 3323 4333
Hobart 15 3323 4334
Casey(Ant) 18 4433 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3322 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
21 Jul 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
22 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The coronal hole induced solar wind stream seems to
be continuing due to its east-west spread. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain enhanced to 'mostly unsettled
to active' levels during the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions may be observed at high
latitudes at times during the next two days due to possible
continued elevations in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%.
21 Jul 72 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
22 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%.
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the
northern Australian/NZ regions during the next two days.
However, isolated periods of minor to mild depressions are
possible in the southern Australian/NZ regions during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 125000 K
Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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