[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** GREEN **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind slowly declining now just below 600km/sec. 
Recent enhanced solar wind speeds due to a solar coronal hole.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was southward 5nT 00-08UT. No weak shock observed. Isolated M 
class flaring possible from solar regions 397 and 400 (both of 
which may be showing some decay). An isolated equatorial coronal 
hole is visible in SEC SXI imagery and SOHO EIT imagery just 
east of solar central meridian. The wind stream from this hole 
is expected from around 10 july. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2243 3321
      Darwin              15   2343 333-
      Townsville          11   2243 2222
      Learmonth           11   2233 3321
      Canberra            11   2143 3221
      Hobart              12   2243 3221
      Casey(Ant)          12   3322 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUL : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3323 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul    12    Unsettled 
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jul    18    active 
COMMENT: An overall declining trend in geomagnetic activity is 
expected next two days with active conditions on 10 July due 
to equatorial coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improving HF communications conditions expected for 
mid to high latitudes. A return to mild/moderately degraded conditions 
is expected around 10 July due to a ooronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jul    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Improving Hf conditions expected next two days, before 
a return to mildly degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 
(southern Aus/NZ region) starting 10 July, due to anticpated 
coronal hole wind streams. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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