[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity over the past 24 hours was very low. 
A large trans-equatorial south-polar coronal hole is now just 
east of central meridian, and high speed solar wind stream effects 
from this feature are expected to continue for at least the next 
two days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3323 3333
      Darwin              12   2323 3333
      Townsville          11   2323 3323
      Learmonth           12   3223 3333
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   2333 3323
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 -233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              90   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   3334 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    20    active 
18 Feb    25    active 
19 Feb    18    active 
COMMENT: Active conditions observed at high latitudes under the 
influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind 
speed has remained elevated at 600-650 km/s over the past 24 
hours. Bz polarity fluctuations have gradually decreased in amplitude 
over the past few days. In the past 24 hours there have been 
some extended periods of southward orientation, resulting in 
storm conditions observed at high latitudes. Coronal hole wind 
stream effects are expected to continue for at least another 
two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
19 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Early evening disturbance observed at low latitudes 
due to persistent and intense sporadic E layer. Mild depressions 
and periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes in association 
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with extended
      periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Persistent and occasionally intense sporadic E layer 
observed at low and high latitudes during local afternoon/evening. 
Mild depressions observed during local day in NZ/Tasman region. 
S. Aus/Antarctic regions can expect extended periods of disturbance 
for the next two days in association with coronal hole wind-stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   223000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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