[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0905UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: The Type II sweep observed on 31 January was associated 
with an eruptive prominence. Recent flare/CME activity, primarily 
from solar region 276, does not appear to be Earthward directed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2111 3344
      Darwin               9   2211 2344
      Townsville           7   1001 2344
      Learmonth           13   2111 3355
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               7   1111 2333
      Casey(Ant)          21   3--- 4---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3245 4321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                levels. 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 
04 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 1 February and 
is current for interval 1-2 February. The CME observed on 30 
January impacted the Earth at approximately 15UT on 1 February, 
however, the IMF was predominantly northward, resulting in only 
active to minor storm levels. Active to minor storm levels may 
persist into 2 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded following an increase 
in geomagnetic activity resulting from the impact of a CME at 
approximately 15UT on 1 Feb. Degraded HF conditions are again 
possible for 2 Feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    70    Depressed 15-30% at times. 
03 Feb   100    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 1 February 
and is current for interval 1-2 February. HF conditions have 
been degraded following an increase in geomagnetic activity resulting 
from the impact of a CME at approximately 15UT on 1 Feb. Degraded 
HF conditions are again possible for 2 Feb. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   215000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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