[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 28 09:23:44 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar region 528 may produce an isolated low level M
class flare. ACE solar wind parameters show a small discontinuity
just after 09 UT -origin unknown. Solar wind speed jumped from
350 to 400km/sec across the mini-shock. Solar wind speed remained
relatively constant until about 15UT then gradually rising to
500km/sec by end of UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained northward across the mini-shock
but became southward by up to 10nT 19-22UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 2313 2234
Darwin 8 1313 2223
Townsville 9 1313 2234
Learmonth 9 2213 2333
Culgoora 9 2303 2234
Canberra 9 1313 2234
Hobart 11 1413 2234
Casey(Ant) 24 3--5 3344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2223 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 15 Quiet to unsettled, chance for active periods.
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect generally quiet geomagnetic conditions for the
next three days. Active periods are possible today if southward
IMF conditions persist. However, 27 day recurrence patterns suggest
that active to minor storm conditions are likley 31 Dec to 01
Jan. Recurrence also suggests that a broad period of active conditions
can be expected 4-11 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions for the next three
days. Chance for mild degradation at mid to high latitudes early
today due to southward IMF conditions. Degraded HF condtions
mid to high latitudes expected 31 Dec to 01 Jan, possibly extending
to 11 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 110 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec 110 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 110 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next three days
with enhanced regional MUFs and a quiet geomagnetic field. Chance
for mild degradation early today, southern Aus/NZ region. Also,
27 day recurrence suggests that degraded HF conditions may be
experienced 31 Dec to 11 Jan, for southern region Aus/NZ only.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 81700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list