[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Chance for isolated M class flares. Solar wind conditions 
nominal. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2122 3113
      Darwin               6   2112 3213
      Townsville           5   1122 3113
      Learmonth            5   2111 3202
      Culgoora             4   1122 2113
      Canberra             5   2222 2113
      Hobart               5   2222 2112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1222 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     8    Quiet 
27 Dec     8    Quiet 
28 Dec     8    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next three days 
with enhanced regional MUFs and a quiet geomagnetic field. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    71200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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