[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 24 10:10:25 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Only minor flare activity was observed today from regions
528 and 530. Region 525 produced a C6 level flare at 1020UT.
Regions 525 and 528 maintain the potential for isolated M-class
activity, but have been mostly quiet on this rotation. The recently
geoeffective coronal hole is now rotationg past the west solar
limb. Solar wind velocities have declined gradually over the
UT day and should continue to decline for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 2212 2222
Darwin 10 -322 23--
Townsville 5 2212 2213
Learmonth 6 2212 2221
Culgoora 5 2212 1212
Canberra 5 2212 1212
Hobart 4 2112 1212
Casey(Ant) 18 ---4 333-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 DEC :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Culgoora 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 15 3334 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 8 Quiet
26 Dec 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at
low to mid latitudes, with isolated active to minor storm periods
observed at high latitudes. Solar wind velocity declined steadily
over the UT day from above 600 km/s to 500 km/s at time of report
issue. Interplanetary magnetic field has maintained a mostly
slightly northward bias. Solar wind parameters will continue
to decline for the next few days as the recent coronal hole rotates
beyond the western solar limb. Expect generally quiet geomagnetic
conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions for the next three
days, with isolated periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20-25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 100 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 100 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 100 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed in most regions,
despite continuing elevated solar wind velocities. Periods of
sporadic-E were observed in S Aus/NZ region, and spread-F conditions
observed in Antarctic region. The present coronal hole wind stream
should continue to decline in velocity over the next two days,
and mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are anticipated. Expect
generally good HF propagation conditions for the next three days,
with periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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