[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 21 10:26:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flare activity was observed today,
mostly from region 525. Regions 525 and 528 have M-class flare
capability. Elevated solar wind parameters from the "L" shaped
coronal hole on the visible solar disk commenced early in the
UT day 20 Dec and should persist for 21-22 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 1224 3434
Darwin 9 1223 3323
Townsville 14 1224 3434
Learmonth 15 2224 3434
Culgoora 17 0224 3534
Canberra 17 0224 3534
Hobart 17 0224 3534
Casey(Ant) 25 24-5 4435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 7 2112 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 18 active
22 Dec 16 active
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels early in the
UT day, becoming unsettled to active at high latitudes, and unsettled
at lower latitudes, following the onset of a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Solar wind speed increased gradually over the
UT day and appears to have stabilised at around 450-500 km/s
at the time of report issue. IMF Bz has maintained a mostly northward
bias over the UT day, limiting geomagnetic disturbance at lower
latitudes. Coronal hole wind stream effects are expected to persist
for 21-22 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed over the UT day.
Mild depressions observed around local dawn today Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions due to the arrival of the anticipated coronal hole wind
stream. Expect periods of degradation today at mid to high latitudes.
Coronal hole wind stream effects are likely to persist for 21-22
Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day/night,
Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with increasing periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values equatorial/N Aus,
Depressed 10 to 30% S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
22 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
23 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 98 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 21 December only. Generally enhanced
HF propagation conditions observed, prior to onset of coronal
hole wind stream effects. Spread-F conditions and periods of
disturbance observed in Antarctic regions. Mild depressions observed
today after local dawn in Aus/NZ regions. Expect periods of disturbance
next two days at mid to high latitudes due to continuing coronal
hole wind stream effects. HF conditions should improve by day
three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 19800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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