[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 7 09:15:12 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1120UT possible lower European
M2/-- 1546UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: US ACE solar wind speed data peaked at 550km/sec at
03 UT then declined gradually to 450km/sec by end of UT day.
Increased solar wind speed believed due to first half of a broad
solar coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained southward 5-10nT across the UT day. The
second half of this large coronal hole is visible in the eastern
solar hemisphere. Whilst solar wind speed has declined, a general
increase in solar wind speed remains expected in coming days.
The two impulsive M1 events were reportedly from departing region
510 just around the solar western limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 18 3344 3332
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 16 3334 3333
Learmonth 17 3235 3322
Culgoora 17 3334 3---
Canberra 18 3344 3333
Hobart 17 3344 3322
Casey(Ant) 19 4-44 2332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 43 2565 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
08 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
09 Dec 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 6-9 December. Geomagnetic activity
may ease slightly today then increase again in coming days. Recurrence
suggests that an extended period of active conditions with minor
storm periods can be expected 08-15 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
09 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are likely at mid to high latitudes
over coming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Degraded conditions second half of UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20% (south Aus/NZ)
07 Dec 80 near predicted monthly values (north Aus)
08 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 40 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on 5 December
and is current for interval 6-8 December. An extended period
of lower than normal MUFs may be experienced for asouthern Aus/NZ
region up to around 15 Dec. Northern Aus region MUFs expected
to remain near to 15% above normal, communicators within this
region should use a Tindex of around 80.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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