[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 31 09:49:52 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain low. There are
no regions on the visible disk having a significant probability
of greater than C-class flare production. Limb brightening is
still evident on the East limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 3332 2222
Darwin 9 2332 2223
Townsville 9 3322 2223
Learmonth 8 3222 2222
Canberra 11 3333 2221
Hobart 9 2333 2211
Casey(Ant) 12 4332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 AUG :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 148 (Severe storm)
Hobart 164 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 1224 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
01 Sep 12 Unsettled
02 Sep 25 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly unsettled levels
today despite the elevated solar wind parameters. Solar wind
speed has declined steadily over the UT day but remains elevated
at around 500 km/s at the time of report issue. Interplanetary
magnetic field Bz has maintained a slight southward bias over
the UT day. An equatorial coronal hole is now past central solar
meridian, and further high speed wind stream effects can be anticipated
after Sep-01. This recurrent feature has produced significant
geomagnetic activity on previous rotations.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed overnight and around local
dawn at low latitudes. Expect degraded HF conditions after Sep-01
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with extended periods of
disturbance during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 70 near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
Extended periods of night time spread-F observed S. Aus and Antarctic
regions. Expect degraded HF conditions after Sep-01 in association
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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