[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: A type II radio sweep was reported at 1340 UT. This 
was probably an East limb event, as a narrow East limb CME was 
reported in LASCO imagery about this time. If the origin of the 
Type II event was on the East limb, it is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Intense Ca XV emission was observed on the East limb by the Sacramento 
Peak Observatory, and east limb brightening has been observed 
in LASCO EIT95 imagery. The region of origin is most likely newly 
numbered region 449, which is probably the return of region 424. 
This region was reasonably active on its previous rotation. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 2323
      Darwin              14   -334 322-
      Townsville          10   2323 2323
      Learmonth           10   2323 2323
      Canberra            10   2323 2323
      Hobart              11   2333 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3443 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 AUG : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   2234 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
30 Aug    12    Unsettled 
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A South polar extension of the recent coronal hole has 
kept solar wind speed mildly elevated above 400 km/s. Interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz has maintained a mild southward bias over the 
UT day, leading to isolated periods of unsettled to active conditions 
at high latitudes. As the coronal hole continues to rotate out 
of geoeffective range, conditions should gradually decline to 
quiet levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depresesd by 10% around local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated
      extended periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
30 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
31 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overnight absorption observed at sub-Antarctic and some 
Antarctic stations. Expect generally good HF conditions with 
a chance of isolated periods of degradation today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    98300 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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