[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 750 to 650km/sec over the UT 
day. A further decline in wind speed is expected today, before 
a gradual increase in wind speed late on 11 or early 12 Aug due 
to another coronal hole. Solar region 424, now in the south-west 
solar quadrant continues its decline. A new solar region has 
rotated onto the solar disk, round the south-east limb, and is 
presumed to be the return of old region 410 (a reasonably large 
non M flare producing region). Isolated M class flare activity 
possible, from 424 and this new region, which has been numbered 
431 by US SEC. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2343 2222
      Darwin              11   2333 3222
      Townsville          11   2243 2222
      Learmonth           13   2243 3233
      Canberra            11   2243 2222
      Hobart              15   2254 2122
      Casey(Ant)          16   3443 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 AUG : 
      Townsville          32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           83   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           178   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             169   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             32   5554 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    10    Unsettled 
11 Aug    14    Initially quiet to unsettled, then becoming active. 
12 Aug    20    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to be relatively quiet 
today. Another coronal hole is then expected to induce activity 
starting late 11 Aug. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. Another mild/moderately 
degraded interval is expected to begin around 11-12 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed later in day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today, before a gradual 
return to mild/moderately degraded conditons for southern Aus/NZ 
region. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near to 15% 
above predicted monthly values. Some southern region sites
may experience brief depressions of 15% after local dawn 
this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 732 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   358000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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