[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 1 09:11:46 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low to Moderate Low to Moderate Low to Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains fast at 800km/sec due to south
polar extension coronal hole. Sustained elevated wind speed conditions
again expected today, then expected to decline. Solar region
422 is now rounding the western limb. This region produced one
of the recent isolated low level M class events. The other single
low level M flare producer, region 421, currently located in
the south-east solar quadrant remains relatively quiet over past
24 hours. However, an upward trend in background solar xray flux
is visible on SEC's solar xray flux plot. This flux trend increased
as the day pogressed (starting the day around the B2 level and
near B5 at time of issue of this report), and this increase is
believed to be associated with a region currently rotating around
the south-east limb, with emission visible in both SEC SXI and
SOHO EIT imagery. Some sign is also visible in Culgoora H-alpha
imagery at south 16 on the east limb. The rate of xray flux increase,
suggests an increase in flare activity is possible over the next
few days. Another day or two is needed before region spots rotate
onto disk for a proper flare assessment.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 23 3345 4333
Darwin 18 3344 3333
Townsville 21 4344 4333
Learmonth 23 3345 4333
Canberra 26 3355 4333
Hobart 26 3355 4333
Casey(Ant) 23 4444 3-35
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JUL :
Townsville 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 61 (Active)
Canberra 194 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 29 4455 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 20 Active, isolated minor storm periods possible.
02 Aug 15 Unsettled to active
03 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 30 July to 1 August. Coronal hole wind
stream effects are expected to continue today, but should start
to decline after 01 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expected periods of degraded HF conditions at mid to
high latitudes for today in association with coronal hole induced
geomagnetic disturbance. Slowly improving conditions expected
02-03 August. Increasing chance of fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
10-15% depressions observed Christchurch and Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 70 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild deppressions of 10-15% again expected after local
dawn for southern Aus/NZ region today. Also, mild degradations
may be experienced during local night hours. A gradual trend
of improving conditions expected over 02-03 August. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values.
Increasing chance of fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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