[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 30 09:47:49 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 0459UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region 337(S16W67)
produced the largest event of the day, an M1.1 flare at 0459UT.
This flare was not associated to any other event. Region
349(S13E20) also produced several low C-level and high B-level
flares. Region 349 has shown growth during the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed continued to decrease in the early hours
and it went down to 300 km/s (approx) indicating a decline in
the recent coronal hole activity. The solar wind speed then
showed a gradual but significant increase until mid-day and
went upto 550 km/s (approx). The solar wind speed remained
nearly steady for the rest of the day and it was approximately
500 km/s around the the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
predominantly northwards during the first half of the UT day,
but it went southwards during the second half of the day as
the solar wind stream strengthened. This variation in the
solar wind speed and Bz can be attributed to a transient flow.
New coronal hole activity is expected to strengthen the solar
wind stream starting in the late hours on 30 April. Regions
337 and 349 hold potential for M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Mostly quiet to
active with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 15 2221 4443
Darwin 15 2222 4443
Townsville 16 2111 5443
Learmonth 23 2331 4553
Canberra 16 1211 5443
Hobart 12 1221 4344
Casey(Ant) 16 ---2 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 20 3545 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 17 Mostly unsettled. Active to isolated minor storm
periods possible.
01 May 25 Active to minor storm
02 May 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity rose to a greater extent
than expected today due to a trasient flow. The geomagnetic
activity may rise on late hours 30 April or early hours 01
May due to expected effect of another coronal hole. Minor
storm periods may be observed on 01 and 02 May due to this
effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
02 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions are possible on 01 and
02 May, especially at mid and high latitudes, due to anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of deppressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 87 near predicted monthly values
01 May 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 May 80 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions are possible on 01 and 02
May, especially in the southern Aus/NZ regions due to anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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