[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 27 09:56:50 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.0 0807UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M2.1/1F 0058UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1/SN 0306UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Three M-class flares
were observed from region 338 (N18W71) These were M2.1/0058UT,
M2.1/0306UT and M7.0/0807UT. No type II was associated to these
flares. Because of un-availability of lasco images for this
period, it could not be confirmed at this stage if any CME
activity could be related to any of these flare. However, the
absence of any Type II and Type IV around the time of these
flares implies that it is less likely that there would have
been any CME activity associated with these flare. It would
be confirmed when the lasco images become available.
Region 338 is still complex and holds potetial for M-class
flare. Region 334(N16E13) also holds potential for M-class
activity. The wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
approximately 480 km/s to approximately 420 km/s during the
UT day against an expected rise due to expected coronal hole
activity which did not eventuate as yet. The solar wind
stream may be strengthened due to the expected coronal hole
activity in the next 2 days. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continued to show minor fluctuations
between the north and south directions almost the whole day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Mostly quiet to unsettled with
occasional active periods.
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 2333 3333
Darwin 11 2322 3333
Townsville 12 2233 3333
Learmonth 10 2222 3333
Canberra 14 2233 4333
Hobart 14 2233 4333
Casey(Ant) 15 3432 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 32 4555 3435
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 25 Mostly active to minor storm. Isolated major
storm periods possible.
28 Apr 23 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
29 Apr 20 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 26 April and
is current for interval 26-28 April. The geomagnetic activity
did not rise as per expectations as the expected coronal hole
effect did not eventuate. The activity may rise during the next
2 days due to the coronal hole effect. The CME activity, associated
with the M3 flare observed on 24 April, may also have weak glancing
effect on the geomagnetic activity on 27 April. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise to active to minor storm levels
with possibility of isolated major storm periods due to this
coronal hole effect during the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
28 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
29 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions are possible over the next
few days,especially at mid and high latitudes, due to anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 70 Depressed 5-10%.
28 Apr 73 Depressed 5-10%.
29 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 26 April
and is current for interval 26-28 April. Mild to moderate depressions
are possible at times over the next few days due to anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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