[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 25 09:56:05 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/1N 1253UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. One M3 flare
from region 338(N18W45), observed at 1253UT, was associated
with a Type II, a Type IV and a weak partial halo CME.
Region 339 has also been quite active today before crossing
the limb. This region produced several C-class flares- the
largest being a C8 flare at 1553UT. The solar wind speed
was nearly steady at approximately 450 km/s during the first
half of the UT day, but then showed a gradual increase to
approximately 550 km/s by the end of the day. It is not
clear if this strengthning in the solar wind speed could
be related to the CME activity observed on 21 April. A
coronal hole is also taking geo-effective position and may
start to strengthen the solar wind stream on 26 or 27 April.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field continued to show minor to mild fluctuations between
the north and south directions almost the whole day. Region
338 still holds potential for M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Mostly quiet to
active with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 2234 4433
Darwin 14 2233 3433
Townsville 16 2224 4433
Learmonth 17 3233 3443
Canberra 22 2234 4543
Hobart 23 2235 4533
Casey(Ant) 16 3343 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 2454 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
26 Apr 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
27 Apr 22 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 24 April
and is current for interval 25-26 April. The geomagnetic
activity remained enhanced upto active and isolated minor
storm levels on 24 April. As no shock has been recorded
but solar wind stream was strengthned, it is not clear if
this enhancement could be related to the partial halo CME
activity observed on 21 April, which was expected to raise
the geomagnetic activity around this period. A possible
glancing effect of the weak partial halo CME observed on
23 April may keep the goemangnetic activity enhanced on
25 and 26 April. An expected coronal hole solar wind stream
may also start to show its effect on 26 or 27 April which
may continue to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next
few days due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of mild to moderate depressions
and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 85 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 85 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 82 Depressed 5-10%/ near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on
24 April and is current for interval 25-26 April. Mild
depressions are possible at times over the next few days
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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