[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 9 09:55:14 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low today. Two B-class
flares were observed- the largest being a B7.7 at 0520UT.
The solar wind speed increased to 390 km/s from 360 km/s
(approx) on arrival of a weak shock at 0014UT. This weak
shock has been related to the CME activity observed with
the M1 flare on 04 April. The solar wind speed continued
to show a gradual increase after the arrival of this shock
until late hours today and it went upto approximately
500 km/s. At the time of this report the solar wind speed
was approximately 450 km/s. The north-south component of
the inter-planetary magnetic field remained mostly southwards
and went negative upto approximately -10nT. At the time of
this report Bz seems to be settling close to the normal value.
A returning coronal hole is expected to start showing its
effect late 09 April or early 10 April. Region 330(N07E10) is
currently the largest region on the visible disk. Regions 330
and 325(N14W77) hold potential for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 22 4335 4323
Darwin 22 5334 4323
Townsville 25 5335 4323
Learmonth 25 5335 4323
Canberra 22 4335 4323
Hobart 23 3335 5322
Casey(Ant) 19 4443 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2112 3311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
10 Apr 22 Unsettled to active with possibility of isolated
minor storm periods.
11 Apr 26 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 April
and is current for interval 10-12 April. The expected weak
shock, due to the CME activity observed on 04 April, arrived
at 0014UT. It seems to have strengthened the solar wind
stream and caused a rise in the geomagnetic activity upto
minor storm levels. The geomagnetic activity is expected to
slow down on 09 April after this CME effect subsides. However,
the geomagnetic activity may rise to 'unsettled to active' or
even 'isolated minor storm level' on 10 and 11 April UT day,
due to the expected effect of a returning coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: The HF conditions ared expected to remain moslty
normal on 09 April. Periods of minor to mild/moderate
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 10 and
11 April on mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 98 about 5% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 92 near monthly predicted vaules/depressed 5%.
11 Apr 92 near monthly predicted vaules/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
8 April and is current for interval 11-12 April. Minor to
mild degradations in HF conditions may be observed in
southern Aus/NZ region on 10 and 11 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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