[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 158/112

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Four low level 
C-class flares and two B-class flares were observed. Region 
324(S12W21) was the most active region today and it produced 
three C-class flares (C1.8/0014UT, C1.1/1236UT and C3.6/1516UT) 
and a B9.5/1133UT. Region 321(N07W40) also produced a C1.0 
flare at 1713UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from 540 km/s to 450 km/s (approx) over the UT day 
as the coronal hole activity is diminishing. The north-south 
component of inter-planetary magnetic field showed minor to 
mild fluctuations between the north and south directions 
throughout the UT day and is continuing to do so at the time 
of this report. The coronal hole activity is expected to 
decline further today. Region 323(S07W56) and 324(S12W21) 
are growing and hold potential for isolated M-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3334 3333
      Darwin              11   2333 3224
      Townsville          10   2323 3223
      Learmonth           13   3333 3233
      Canberra            14   2324 3333
      Hobart              15   2334 3333
      Casey(Ant)          22   4534 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   5413 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr    16    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated periods 
                of minor storm possible. 
04 Apr    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
05 Apr     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: Recent coronal hole induced activity and hence the 
geomagnetic activity are expected to decline further during 
the next 24 hours. However, if Bz keeps fluctuating predominantly 
in the southward direction, the decline in the geo-magnetic 
activity may be less than otherwise expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms expected to improve over the 
next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Apr    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% during the early hours,
      depressed and mild to strongly degraded conditions
      in the second half of the day. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    98    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Apr   105    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally improved HF conditions expected for southern 
Aus/NZ regions during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   135000 K  
Bz:   3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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