[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 160/114


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has dropped from 600 to 500km/sec, 
and is expected to drop furtehr over the next 24 hours as the 
Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Mostly unsettled 
to active. Two minor storm periods observed local night hours. 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      25   3323 5543
      Darwin              25   3323 5544
      Townsville          23   2323 5543
      Learmonth           28   3323 5553
      Canberra            23   3323 5533
      Hobart              30   3333 6543
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAR : 
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   4533 3345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Apr    14    Unsettled 
03 Apr    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Isolated 
active periods expected today, then declining. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected next two days at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    40    depressed 15% to near normal (south Aus)
01 Apr    90    near normal to enhanced 15% (north Aus)
02 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 31 March 
and is current for interval 1 April only. Further degradation 
periods possible local night hours and after local dawn for southern 
Aus/NZ region sites. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be 
near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   289000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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