[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N    0639UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Region 134 produced a low level M class event. There 
is a possibility of further activity from this region. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 1112
      Townsville           5   2221 1123
      Learmonth            3   1220 1112
      Canberra             3   1210 1122
      Hobart               3   1220 1012
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1312 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep    14    Unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods. 
01 Oct    13    Unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods. 
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
01 Oct   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
02 Oct   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    24800 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060