[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1312UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF    1942UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 152/107


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94
COMMENT: Solar region 134 produced the M1 events and a longer 
duration C9.9 event earlier in the UT day beginning around 0320UT. 
LASCO C3 imagery showed two narrow focused mass ejections to 
the north-east following the C9 event and the 13UT M1 event. 
These mass ejection are not considered geoeffective. Further 
M class activity likely from region 134. A isolated coronal hole 
is visible near the centre of the solar disk, in the Suns southern 
hemisphere. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2102 1112
      Townsville           3   2101 1212
      Learmonth            5   3201 1212
      Canberra             2   1102 1102
      Hobart               3   1112 1101
      Casey(Ant)           5   2--2 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     7    Quiet 
29 Sep     7    Quiet 
30 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions mostly expected. There 
is an outside chance of a weak impulse next 24 hours. Also, active 
periods are possible 30 Sep - 01 Oct due to coronal hole currently 
in southern hemisphere of solar disk. However, the 27 day recurrent 
pattern of geomagnetic activity is not strong. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions mostly expected. Mild degradation 
possible at high latitudes 30 Sep to 01 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
in HF comms quality possible local night hours 30Sep to 01 Oct 
southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    61500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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