[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0512UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 164/118

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate on 20 Sept. 
Two M-class flares (M1.3/0514UT and M1.7/ 0929UT) were 
produced by region 126(S24E62). A partial halo CME was 
observed on the south-east limb around 0740UT. It is 
not expected to be geo-effective. Region 119(S14W24) 
showed furhter growth and produced low level C-class flares.
Region 126 and 119 have potential to produce M-class flares.
The solar wind speed has shown a gradual decrease from 
600km/s to 380km/s approximately over the UT day as the 
effect of the CME is sub-siding. Bz remained predominantly 
northwards for almost the whole day and hence reduced the 
geo-effectiveness of the CME. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2221 0003
      Townsville           3   2220 0014
      Learmonth            3   2220 0003
      Canberra             2   1221 0002
      Hobart               2   1221 0002
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-42 0012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 SEP : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are 
the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3212 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Sep     8    Mostly Quiet 
23 Sep     8    Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity did not rise to the 
expected level as Bz remained northward almost the whole 
day- thus off-setting the otherwise expected effect of the 
CME that arrived on 19 September. The solar wind speed has 
also slowed down from 600km/s to 380km/s approximately. 
The geo-magnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly 
at quiet to unsettled level during the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain normal 
during the next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep   144    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
22 Sep   148    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
23 Sep   148    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are 
expected to remain mostly normal over the next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 623 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   269000 K  
Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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