[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            165/119            160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at low level on 18 Sept. 
Several C-class flare were observed- mostly from region 
119(S14E04). This region is showing growth. Region 105
(S09W70) also produced C-class flares and grew in complexity. 
Region 114(S11W50) is decaying. The solar wind speed has 
shown a gradual increase from 450km/s to 570km/s approximately 
over the UT day. Bz remained predominantly northwards for 
almost the whole day. There is a slight possibility of 
arrival of a weak shock on 19 September due to the glancing 
effect of the partial halo CME observed on 17 September. 
Regions 119 and 105 have potential for isolated M-class flares. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   4333 3223
      Townsville          12   4323 3213
      Learmonth           13   4323 3222
      Canberra            12   3333 3213
      Hobart              14   3334 3223
      Casey(Ant)          21   45-4 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   2333 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    18    Mostly unsettled. Active to minor storm level 
                periods possible. 
20 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
21 Sep    10    Mostly unsettled. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at the unsettled level-especially in the first half 
of the UT day 19 September. Periods of active to minor 
storm level may be observed in the second half of the UT 
day due to a possible glancing effect of the partial halo 
CME observed on 17 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Periods of mild degradations may be expected for mid 
to high latitudes on 19 September. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with
      periods of degradations and depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep   135    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
20 Sep   140    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep   145    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations possible in HF 
conditions in southern Australian regions on 19 September. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  
Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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