[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in the 
Suns eastern hemisphere. High speed stream effects expected 03-04Nov. 
Some mass ejection activity observed behind north-east limb in 
LASCO imagery. However, no region "plume" can be seen in SOHO 
EIT imagery. Solar region 162 is now approaching the west limb 
of the Sun, about to rotate off disk. Solar region 176 near far 
northeast of disk, shows some bright points this morning. Also, 
an erupting solar filament was reported between late 29 to early 
30 Oct. Some motion is visible in SOHO EIT imagery around 1UT 
on 30 Oct, and it appears that a narrow/bright CME directed to 
predominately south and to the west (not toward earth) followed 
this event. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2353 2332
      Darwin               7   2--- ----
      Townsville          14   3243 3232
      Learmonth           12   2242 2333
      Canberra            15   2253 2322
      Hobart              17   2353 2332
      Casey(Ant)          19   3453 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 OCT : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            78   (Active)
      Hobart              70   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   4334 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 November. Isolated minor storm 
period observed overnight. Another coronal hole induced disturbance 
is expected 03-04 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expecte dto be generally good next few 
days. However, degraded HF conditions expected 03-04 Nov at high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Oct   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct   110    near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov   110    near predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours last night, 
southern Australian region. Mild depression observed after local 
dawn, not expected to persist. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060