[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1422UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: The long duration X-ray event of late 14 - early 15 
Oct appeared to originate from behind the east limb around 1420UT 
on Oct 14, producing a partial-halo CME. There is the possibility 
of a weak shock arrival from this event late 16 to early 17 Oct. 
A C-class flare from region 149 at 1420UT produced a CME which 
does not appear to be earth directed. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4434 3333
      Darwin              18   4433 3333
      Townsville          18   3434 3333
      Learmonth           13   3233 3334
      Canberra            20   4433 3432
      Hobart              23   4434 3443
      Casey(Ant)          28   5-54 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             26   3444 6432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct    16    active 
17 Oct    12    Unsettled 
18 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes 
in association with strong fluctuations in IMF Bz. A steady increase 
in solar wind speed was observed over the UT day. Conditions 
were quiet to unsettled at low to mid latitudes. Similar conditions 
are expected today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor-fair     
17 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
18 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Depressions observed mid to high latitudes after local 
dawn today. These conditions are likely to persist throughout 
the local day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Oct    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% below predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct    95    near predicted monthly values 
17 Oct   115    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
18 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions observed mid to high latitudes 
after local dawn today and may continue into the local day. A 
possible CME induced shock may arrive late in the UT day Oct 
16. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: M1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    56500 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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