[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0043UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M4.3    0538UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.7    1105UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1255UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.2    1711UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.8    2243UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 158/112


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            170/124            180/133
COMMENT: A Type II sweep was observed at 2241UT on 4 Oct in association 
with the M3 flare from region 0139. Further flare activity is 
expected from regions 137 and 139. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   4342 4443
      Townsville          26   434- 5343
      Learmonth           28   434- 4543
      Canberra            27   44-- 4443
      Hobart              22   43-- 4343
      Casey(Ant)          19   4432 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 OCT : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             33   6343 4555     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    16    active 
06 Oct    12    Unsettled 
07 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Sustained periods of southward IMF of unknown origin 
have continued to produce storm levels of geomagnetic activity 
for the past few days. Solar wind observations suggest parameters 
are retuning to normal and storm levels should decrease to mostly 
unsettled to active levels for 5 October. Recent CME activity 
observed during 3-4 October is not expected to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-poor    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at times for mid-high 
latitudes for 4 October as the result of elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be again observed 
at times for mid-high latitudes for 5 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct   110    Northern Australian region near predicted monthly 
                values. Southern Australian/Antarctic regions 
                depressed 10-30% at times. 
06 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at times for mid-high 
latitudes for 4 October as the result of elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be again observed 
at times for mid-high latitudes for 5 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    79200 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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