[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 30 10:49:47 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. One C2.9 flare
was observed from region 207(S19E44) at 0443UT/29 November.
Region 207 is the most dominant region on the limb now and
there is some chance of isolated M-class flare from this
region. The solar wind speed is still enhanced. The solar
wind speed was around 500 km/s during the first few hours
of the UT day 29 Noveber and increased upto approximately
570 km/s between 0700 and 0900 UT. The solar wind speed
remained between 500 and 540 km/s after that for the rest
of the day. The inter-planetary magnetic field stayed weakly
southwards for the first few hours of the day and then kept
fluctuating between +8nT and -8nT (approximately).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 3233 3333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 15 3--- ----
Learmonth 11 2232 3333
Canberra 13 2232 3433
Hobart 12 2332 3333
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 NOV :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Hobart 117 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 3433 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 15 Mostly unsettled to active.
01 Dec 25 Mostly active. Minor storm possible.
02 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 29 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 3 December.
Continuously enhanced solar wind speed and unstable Bz are
still holding the geo-magnetic activity at mostly unsettled
level. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to rise further
during the next three days due to a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole. Periods of minor storm are
possible during this interval.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to show minor to
mild degradations during the next three days -especially
at mid- and high-latitude locations. These degradations
are expected due to a favourably placed coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 100 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5%.
01 Dec 90 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5-15%.
02 Dec 94 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5-15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
29 November and is current for interval 30 November to
3 December. HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are
expected to show minor to mild degradations during the
next three days- especially in the Southern Australian
regions. These degradations and possible MUF depressions
are expected due to a favourably placed conronal hole on
the solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 103000 K
Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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