[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Moderate 

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M7.4/1F    0208UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 179/132



1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: The M-class flare originated from solar region 198 and 
was impulsive in nature. Culgoora radiospectrograph data indicated 
magnetic confinement of the event and no mass ejection was observed 
in LASCO imagery. A CME was observed associated with a later 
C-class flare, but was southwest directed and is not expected 
to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 3233
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           9   2123 3233
      Learmonth           11   3213 3234
      Canberra            11   2123 3333
      Hobart              11   2223 3333
      Casey(Ant)          10   3223 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3211 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate recent coronal hole induced 
effects are declining. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
20 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric conditions observed after local 
dawn at high latitudes. Isolated depressions observed after local 
dawn central Australian latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Isolated depressions of 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10 to 20% after local dawn. 


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   110    Enhanced 5 to 15% equatorial/northern Australian 
                region. Isolated depressions of 10-20% after 
                local dawn central Australian/Antarctic regions. 
20 Nov   115    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Nov   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    57400 K  Bz:   8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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