[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0125UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 198/150


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147
COMMENT: Solar regions, 191, 192 and 195 all have the chance 
of producing significant flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 2233
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          11   3233 2233
      Learmonth           11   3233 2233
      Canberra            11   3233 2234
      Hobart              11   3233 2233
      Casey(Ant)          24   4--5 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 NOV : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3222 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    20    Initially unsettled with active and possible 
                minor storm periods later in the UT day. 
17 Nov    25    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
18 Nov    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for interval 15-17 November. Mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity is expected for 16-17 November due to a geoeffectively 
positioned coronal hole and recent weak CME activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected at times for 16-17 
November for mid-high latitudes in response to anticipated mildly 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Nov   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   110    Initially enhanced with possible depressions 
                of 5-15% at times later in the UT day. 
17 Nov   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov   125    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for interval 16-17 November. Degraded HF conditions 
are expected at times for 16-17 November for mid-high latitudes 
in response to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    68400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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