[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW**   MAG:**YELLOW**   ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 185/138


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Mostly unsettled to active
with storm periods observed at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3233
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          11   2323 3233
      Learmonth           15   3333 3333
      Canberra            13   3333 3233
      Hobart              13   3333 3233
      Casey(Ant)          24   -544 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra           127   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             143   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19   3444 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods at high latitudes. 
08 Nov    15    Unsettled to active 
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the Earth is still under 
the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream, 
which has resulted in mostly unsettled to active levels with 
storm periods at high latitudes. The coronal hole solar wind 
stream is expected to decline slowly over the next 24 hours with 
mostly unsettled to active levels anticipated, and possible isolated 
storm levels at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced over the past 24 hours with slight depressions 
up to 15% at times due to elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
Similar conditions are expected for 7 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
      15-30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                15% for Northern regions with possible depressions 
                of 15% at times for Southern regions. 
08 Nov   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Nov   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced over the past 24 hours with slight depressions 
up to 15% at times due to elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
Similar conditions are expected for 7 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 552 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060