[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1403UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: The interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward 
(-10nT) for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed was moderately 
elevated 500km/sec, probably in association with the equatorial 
coronal hole. The M1 event was from solar region 177 is north-east 
quadrant of the solar disk. Further M class activity is possible 
from this region. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3434 4443
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          17   2334 3343
      Learmonth           22   2333 4543
      Canberra            23   3443 4442
      Hobart              28   3444 5443
      Casey(Ant)          24   4534 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21   3245 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    25    Active, minor storm periods possible. 
05 Nov    18    unsettled to active 
06 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity is expected 04 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected 04 Nov at high latitudes. 
Enhanced proton flux levels causing increased absorption at high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Nov   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted montly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   100    near predicted monthly values northern region.
04 Nov    45    depressed 25% local day, southern region.
05 Nov   130    near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 3 November 
and is current for interval 4 November only. Lower than normal 
MUFs expected for southern region sites again today, as moderate 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity continues. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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