[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/--    1652UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 170/124

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129
COMMENT: The solar origin of the X1 flare appears to be region 
162 on the north-west limb. However, SOHO EIT imagery at 17UT 
also shows flare activity on the eastern equatorial limb at the same 
time as the event in region 162. Thus the origin is not certain. 
The isolated equatorial coronal hole continues to move into 
geoeffective position. A weak 10MeV proton enhancement was 
observed beginning early in the UT day 31 Oct, possibly following 
the recent erupting filament in the south-western solar quadrant. 
The X1 event may also add to proton flux levels today, 
particularly if the origin was 162 as loops were visible. Solar 
activity may decline as solar region 162 rotates off disk. However, 
this lull may then be followed by further activity if an active 
region is behind the east limb and rotates onto the solar 
disk in the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2233 4431
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          11   2122 43--
      Learmonth           18   3233 5330
      Canberra            16   2233 4432
      Hobart              17   2333 4431
      Casey(Ant)          21   --43 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              70   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             19   2354 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Nov    12    Unsettled 
03 Nov    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 3-4 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity is expected 03-04 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event. Proton flux levels midly enhanced.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: However, degraded HF conditions expected 03-04 Nov at 
high latitudes. Some absorption may be experienced at polar
regions as day progresses.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Oct   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   120    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   120    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   120    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected local night hours southern 
Aus/NZ region 03-04 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 490 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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