[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 02

Sun May 26 09:42:49 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 183/136

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: The solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours. 
A C1.3 X-ray flare was observed from region 9960(N14W20). This 
flare peaked at 0547UT/25May. Region 9961(S21W14) also produced 
a C1.7 flare which peaked at 1721/25May. Three CMEs were observed 
respectively at 2018/24May, 0320/25May and 1818/25 May. None 
of these CMEs is expected to be geo-effective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1100 1112
      Darwin               3   2110 1123
      Townsville           2   1100 1123
      Learmonth            2   1100 0212
      Canberra             0   0000 0011
      Hobart               0   0000 0002
      Casey(Ant)           3   1111 1112
      Davis(Ant)           4   3100 1-22

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAY : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   2112 2332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
27 May     6    Quiet to unsettled 
28 May     6    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The effect of the coronal hole activity seems to be 
subsiding. The solar wind speed has declined to the range of 
350 to 500 km/s. Further decline in the solar wind speed is 
possible. Bz remained steady near the normal value during the 
first half of the UTday on 25May, but showed some fluctuations 
in the second half of the day. These fluctuations in Bz are
still going on. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 1820UT 22/05, Ended at 1400UT 24/05

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions remained mostly normal in low and 
mid-latitude regions with periods of slight enhancements and 
depressions in MUFs in the mid and high latitude regions during 
the UT day of 25May. The coronal hole solar wind stream seems 
to be slowing down. The HF conditions are expected to remain 
normal during the next 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 May   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May   135    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 May   140    5 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 May   140    5 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
26 and 27 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 709 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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