[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F 21/2139UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 181/134

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2213 2122
      Darwin               7   2223 2122
      Townsville           7   2213 2123
      Learmonth            7   2213 2122
      Canberra             5   1213 1122
      Hobart               5   1213 1111
      Casey(Ant)           8   2322 2132
      Davis(Ant)          13   23-4 31-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAY : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3242 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    12    Mostly unsettled. 
24 May    30    Mostly active. Minor storm level possible. 
25 May    16    Mostly unsettled to active. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 21 May and 
is current for interval 24-25 May. Three CMEs were observed in 
the last 24 hours at 21May/2342UT, 22May/0042UT and 22May/0418UT. 
The first two CMEs are expected to cause only a glancing effect 
on the earth but the last one, associated with a C5 flare/0354UT 
and caused by the eruption of a solar filament near the south-west 
limb, is expected to cause geomagnetic disturbance on 24 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 05 2002 1820UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair     
24 May      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair     
25 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected 24-25 May in asscoaition 
with anticipated geomagnetic activity from CMEs and the currently 
going on 10MeV proton event. The seasonal effect is expected 
to offset this degradation to some extent at low and mid latitudes 
during the coming 3 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 May   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May   128    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
24 May   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
25 May   130    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto 
                5 %. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 21 May 
and is current for interval 24-25 May. Mild degradation in HF 
conditions expected on 24 May. HF conditions are expected to 
show recovery on 25 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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