[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 180/133

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            200/152            205/156
COMMENT: No sign yet of possibly returning region 9906. Two regions 
in south-east quadrant have shown growth overnight. M class flare 
activity becoming more likely. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       0   0100 0001
      Townsville           2   0111 1102
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             0   0000 0001
      Hobart               0   0100 0001
      Casey(Ant)           1   01-- ----
      Davis(Ant)           1   01-- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   1232 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    11    Unsettled 
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     7    Quiet to unsettled 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 May   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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