[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0822UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 153/108

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate 
levels. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9899 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 2 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 3112
      Townsville           5   1212 2212
      Learmonth            6   2222 2212
      Canberra             7   2222 3112
      Hobart               6   1222 3111
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 3111
      Davis(Ant)           3   ---- --11
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2123 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May     6    Quiet 
02 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 May    12    Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 Apr   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
02 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
03 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 500 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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