[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    2329UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 179/132

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9830 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 12 Mar. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2323 3223
      Darwin               8   2222 3223
      Learmonth            8   3312 3113
      Canberra             8   0223 3223
      Hobart               9   1323 3213
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          13   2334 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAR : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1002 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     6    Quiet 
12 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods exist on 12 and 13 Mar due to 
possible shock passage effects from 9 Mar long duration M2 flare 
event. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Mar   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
12 Mar   140    near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    41000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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