[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 30 09:44:02 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 143/97
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 29June. Three C-class
flares (C2.6/0034UT, C1.2/0640UT and C2/0933UT) were
observed on 29 June. The solar wind speed mostly remained
at moderate level of approximately 350km/s for most of
the day, but it showed a rapid rise to approximately 380km/s
around 2000UT. The solar wind speed is currently showing
fluctuations indicating a decreasing trend as well. Bz
remained northwards for most of the day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 0122
Darwin 4 1211 0223
Townsville 2 1101 0122
Learmonth 2 0111 0121
Canberra 2 0101 0122
Hobart 1 0001 0111
Casey(Ant) 2 1211 010-
Davis(Ant) 8 1332 12--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period)
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 7 2112 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 10 Mostly unsettled.
01 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled.
02 Jul 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic effect of the partial halo CME
observed on 27June may raise the geo-magnetic activity to
unsettled levels on 30June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The expected geo-magnetic effect of the partial
halo CME observed on 27June may lead to mild degradations
in HF conditions on 30June. Periods of small depressions
may be observed at mid and high latitude locations during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
29 Jun 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods
of depressions upto 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions upto 5%.
01 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions upto 5%.
02 Jul 108 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The expected geo-magnetic effect of the partial
halo CME observed on 27June may lead to small degradations
in the HF conditions in southern Australian regions on
30 June. MUFs may show small depressions during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 34100 K Bz: 1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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