[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:50:56 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.4 2132UT confirmed all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 185/138
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: The X3 event was optically correlated by Culgoora H-alpha
imagery to an event on the south-east limb (bright loops visible)
of the sun. A type II (600km/sec) and Type IV radio sweeps were
observed on the Culgoora radiospectrograph. This is probably the
return of old region 17. A weak (due to east limb location)
proton enhancement is possible following this event. Current on disk
regions 30 and 36 remain M flare capable. Solar wind speed has declined
from 900km/sec early in UT day to 650km/sec toward end of UT day,
following recent solar wind shocks on 19 Jul. The north-south component
of the IMF was southward 10nT atart of UT day returning to neutral after
04 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 18 5432 2233
Darwin 19 5432 2334
Townsville 15 4432 2234
Learmonth 17 5432 1233
Canberra 15 4432 2233
Hobart 12 4332 1233
Casey(Ant) 16 5432 2223
Davis(Ant) 26 --53 3---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUL :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2213 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 14 Unsettled to active
22 Jul 11 Unsettled
23 Jul 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 19 July and
is current for interval 20-21 July. No further impulse was observed.
Activity now expected to generally decline. However, possible
glancing blow from infered X3/CME event on 23 Jul. w
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 07 2002 1145UT,
Ended 19 07 2002 1535UT.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Chance for increased absorption today at high latitudes.
Conditions expected to generally improve, with chance for further
mild degradation on 23 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
20 Jul 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 110 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 19 July
and is current for interval 20-21 July. MUFs had a positive response
to geomagnetic activity. Further depression not expected. Shortwave
fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits due to active
solar region rotating onto solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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