[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/2B    0744UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 181/134

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            190/143
COMMENT: Solar regions 30 and 36 have the chance of producing 
a major flare. 

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 17 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 19 Jul. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1112
      Darwin               5   22-2 1113
      Townsville           4   1222 1013
      Learmonth            4   22-2 1001
      Canberra             3   2212 1001
      Hobart               2   1112 1000
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2123
      Davis(Ant)          17   3334 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              78   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   3343 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Jul    25    Initially quiet to unsettled with storm levels 
                expected later in the UT day. 
21 Jul    35    Active to minor storm with major storm periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: The faint halo CME observed in association with the 
X1-flare on 18 July is expected to impact the Earth and produce 
minor and possible major storm levels late on 20 to 21 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 1810UT 16/07, Ended at 1600UT 18/07
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
21 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity anticipated for late 
20 to 21 July is expected to produce degraded HF conditions for 
21 July. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 Jul   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater
      than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded to PCA event to near predicted monthly
      values.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul   105    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul    95    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Jul    85    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity anticipated for late 
20 to 21 July is expected to produce degraded HF conditions for 
21 July. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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