[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 17 09:02:02 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 15/2132UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 172/126
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
The region 30 produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008 UT, associated
with a 1900 sfu Tenflare, a type IV radio aweep. Regions 30 and
36 is still has potential to produce another event during the
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 2223 1123
Darwin 8 2323 122-
Townsville 7 2223 112-
Learmonth 8 2223 2133
Canberra 6 1223 112-
Hobart 5 1222 112-
Casey(Ant) 8 2322 2132
Davis(Ant) 10 1332 23-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2211 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
18 Jul 20 active
19 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 July and
is current for interval 16-18 July. Magnetic field will be at
unsettled to active levels because of the recurrent coronal hole
effects on 16 July 2002. It will increases to active to minor
storm levels on 17 July 2002 because of CME, associated with
X3/3b flare happened at 20:08 UT, 15 July 2002.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 07 2002 1810UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
18 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be degraded
on 17 July 2002 at middle and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
16 Jul 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 103 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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